Utah Avalance Association · Aug 20 2021
The avalanche community already recognizes the limitations of strict rule following in making judgements about the snowpack. For example, in the Canadian Avalanche Association Observational Guidelines and Reporting Standards for Weather, Snowpack and Avalanches (OGRS), there are seven7 instances of the word “rule” whereby six (6!) of these indicated that a definitive rule was impossible! (The seven-7th instance was to describe a rule of thumb and indicate variability was required). If the rules by themselves are unable to prescriptively define safe decisions, yet, many outcomes are successful, then avalanche professionals must be doing something right! Given this paradox, we can make a guess that there is sophisticated cognitive work – in perception, reasoning, evaluation and judgement – that goes into successfully managing the ambiguity in forecasting and guiding work.
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